Copenhagen - what next ? - selected bits from UN, EU and other websites.
Although Ireland has just sufferred a cold spell, it remains a fact that the average temperature of the planet is gradually increasing due to the enhanced greenhouse-effect caused by our continued burning of fossil fuels. The polar ice-caps and glaciers in the world's mountain regions are melting and, should anyone require further confirmation, ask any sea-going fisherman who will tell you of the movement of fish northwards because they need to live in water of a specific temperature.
The talks in Copenhagen were an attempt to reach agreement between all countries to do something positive to reduce carbon emissions and keep global warming to a manageable level. To some extent there was success in that there was agreement that warming should not be allowed to go beyond 2 degrees (any more will have disastrous consequences) and governments agreed to come up with target emission reductions.
In November 2007, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) finalised its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), summarising six years of rigorous scientific research and analysis of the way the world’s climate is changing. The IPCC was set up in 1988 and brings together input from some 2,500 leading experts and scientists all around the world.
This landmark report established beyond all reasonable doubt that greenhouse gas emissions from human activity are generating global warming which could have a devastating impact on people, our economies and our environment.
- Eleven of the last 12 years have been the warmest in history.
- The rate of sea level rise has almost doubled from 18 cm per century in 1961-2003 to 31 cm per century in 1993-2003, accelerated by melting glaciers and polar ice.
- Satellite data show that Arctic sea ice has been shrinking by 2.7% per decade since 1978.
- Cold nights and frosts are rarer, and heatwaves more frequent.
- Over the last century, rainfall has increased in northern countries, but declined around the Mediterranean, Africa and southern Asia, extending areas of drought.
Temperatures are rising faster and faster. Over the past 100 years the global average temperature has gone up by 0.74ºC. If global emissions of greenhouse gases carry on growing as they are now, our planet will most likely be between 1.8ºC and 4.0 ºC 6.4ºC warmer than today by the end of this century – and in the worst case up to 6.4°C hotter. Even the lower end of this temperature range would represent an enormously rapid change which many species and ecosystems would have difficulty coping with.
But it’s not all bad news. Steps can be taken now to slow down or adapt to climate change, and such measures make economic sense. Doing nothing could cost the Earth, in terms of damage to the natural world and our economies, but harnessing our knowledge will mean savings in all directions. Many technologies and practices to help us reduce emissions – through greater energy efficiency, renewable energy sources or better waste management, for instance – are already available or in the pipeline and likely to become available within the foreseeable future.
The problem is that barriers – such as conflict, poverty and lack of information – often stand in the way of exploiting these technologies. Governments around the world need to prioritise the removal of these obstacles, says the IPCC. Unless climate change is controlled, all humanity’s other goals of progress and sustainable development may be in danger.
Copenhagen climate conference
Commissioner Dimas joined the Presidency in concluding that the Copenhagen Accord is a first step towards a legally binding global climate agreement . He said that although the Accord fell well short of the level of ambition that was needed to prevent dangerous climate change, it contained many of the elements the European Union had fought for. This includes recognition of the 2 degree Celsius objective, economy-wide emission reduction targets for developed countries and mitigation action by developing countries by 31 January 2010, and a substantial finance package of USD 30 billion for the coming three years and USD 100 billion by 2020. It also provides for a mechanism to accelerate technology cooperation. He said a crucial first step would be to ensure that all key parties confirm their endorsement of the Accord and notify their targets or actions by 31 January 2010.
The deal calls for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases “with a view” to keeping global warming below 2°C, considered the threshold beyond which climate change may spiral out of control. It asks developed nations to make deep, verifiable cuts. Developing countries would begin curbing their emissions and report their results every two years, with “provisions for international consultations and analysis”.
It will be up to individual countries to determine how far to go. The accord cites 2015 as a deadline for a review of action taken, but nations must state their goals by the end of January.
The conference also failed to deliver a comprehensive agreement on compensating countries for preserving forests, which play a crucial role in curbing climate change.
Perhaps the most tangible result was an agreement by developed nations to spend $30bn (€21bn) over the next three years and $100bn (€70bn) by 2020 to fund projects in poor nations to promote clean energy and deal with drought, rising sea levels and other climate changes. The EU has pledged €7.2bn of the €21bn in fast-start funding, expected to come from a variety of sources, private as well as public.
The Accord endorses for the first time at global level the objective of keeping warming to less than 2°C above the pre-industrial temperature. Another positive element is that it requires developed countries to submit economy-wide emission reduction targets, and developing countries to submit their mitigation actions, by 31 January 2010 so that they can be listed as part of the document. The Accord also lays the basis for a substantial ‘fast start’ finance package for developing countries approaching $30 billion for the period 2010-12, and medium-term financing of $100 billion annually by 2020.
However, the Accord does not refer to the conclusion of a legally binding agreement, a key objective for the EU, or set the goal of at least halving global emissions by 2050 compared to 1990 levels in order to keep warming below 2°C. The EU will continue to push for these.
The Accord also leaves many important details to be worked out. Much work will now be needed to make the Accord operational. If this can be achieved it could, together with the outcomes of the two working groups, provide the basis of a new global climate treaty.
The European Commission’s goal is now to ensure that a legally binding treaty is agreed in November 2010 in Mexico.
International biological diversity beyond 2010
Commissioner Dimas welcomed Council conclusions on a post-2010 global vision and target for biodiversity. The conclusions agree on key strategic principles which should inform the debate. These call for measurable, achievable, realistic and time-bound targets based on the best available science. The loss of biodiversity is as great a threat as climate change to the environment, our quality of life and economic prosperity. Besides its intrinsic value, biodiversity also has an important role to play in mitigating and adapting to climate change through the capacity of ecosystems to store carbon dioxide and protect societies against the impacts of climate change. 2010, the International Year of Biodiversity, will be a crucial year for biodiversity policy.
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) :
“Though far from perfect, the Copenhagen Accord is a hard-fought political agreement. With most countries likely to sign, it is a breakthrough towards collective international action to limit global emissions and help build cleaner, more resilient economies”, said Secretary-General Angel Gurría.
An OECD report dated December 2009 regarding their recent work on climate change as related to Employment and Local Development states :An ongoing study led by the Local Economic and Employment Development Directing Committee aims at providing the support and advice that national and local stakeholders need to maintain their employment levels while expanding into greener activities. The project examines the adjustments required at the local level to ensure that labour markets comply with the demands of a greener economy, and examines the expansion of good quality green jobs as an opportunity to develop low carbon activities. It includes the identification and assessment of new green economic niches, the definition of stimulus frameworks, and the implementation of programmes to educate, train and re-skill the labour force.
The EU Commission states the following regarding its contribution to 'Shaping A Future Global Climate Change Regime' :
International negotiations are under way to draw up a United Nations climate change agreement for the period after 2012, when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires.
For the EU, the international negotiations must result in a legally binding global treaty that is comprehensive, ambitious, fair and science-based.
The treaty should aim to keep global warming below 2°C above the pre-industrial temperature, or around 1.2°C above today's level. The treaty should cover all elements of the 2007 Bali Action Plan, which set the agenda and scope of the international negotiations.
Scientific evidence shows that to keep within the 2°C ceiling, global emissions of greenhouse gases will have to peak by 2020 at the latest, be cut by at least 50% of their 1990 levels by 2050, and continue to decline thereafter.
These objectives can be achieved only through a worldwide effort involving developed and developing countries alike.
Industrialised nations must take the lead by making deep emission cuts of 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020 and of 80-95% by 2050.
Action by developing nations (except the least developed countries) will also be needed to limit the rapid growth in their emissions. In particular the more economically advanced developing countries should pledge ambitious, quantified mitigation actions.
Overall, developing country pledges need to amount to a substantial deviation - in the order of 15-30% - below the currently predicted growth rate in their collective emissions by 2020. The EU is ready to provide its fair share of finance.
International biological diversity beyond 2010
Commissioner Dimas welcomed Council conclusions on a post-2010 global vision and target for biodiversity. The conclusions agree on key strategic principles which should inform the debate. These call for measurable, achievable, realistic and time-bound targets based on the best available science. The loss of biodiversity is as great a threat as climate change to the environment, our quality of life and economic prosperity. Besides its intrinsic value, biodiversity also has an important role to play in mitigating and adapting to climate change through the capacity of ecosystems to store carbon dioxide and protect societies against the impacts of climate change. 2010, the International Year of Biodiversity, will be a crucial year for biodiversity policy.
The Accord endorses for the first time at global level the objective of keeping warming to less than 2°C above the pre-industrial temperature. Another positive element is that it requires developed countries to submit economy-wide emission reduction targets, and developing countries to submit their mitigation actions, by 31 January 2010 so that they can be listed as part of the document. The Accord also lays the basis for a substantial ‘fast start’ finance package for developing countries approaching $30 billion for the period 2010-12, and medium-term financing of $100 billion annually by 2020.
However, the Accord does not refer to the conclusion of a legally binding agreement, a key objective for the EU, or set the goal of at least halving global emissions by 2050 compared to 1990 levels in order to keep warming below 2°C. The EU will continue to push for these.
The Accord also leaves many important details to be worked out. Much work will now be needed to make the Accord operational. If this can be achieved it could, together with the outcomes of the two working groups, provide the basis of a new global climate treaty.
The European Commission’s goal is now to ensure that a legally binding treaty is agreed in November 2010 in Mexico.
